April 9, 2020

1. A trend of steady but slow improvements is seen in Days-to-Double (DD) for both the USA and the World with some daily fluctuations.

DD for deaths is now ~5.5 days for the USA and ~9 days for the World.

DD for Covid-19 confirmed cases is now ~8 days for the USA and ~12 days for the World.

2. There are marked improvements in the state of NY daily hospitalizations, ICU admittance, and intubations. Everything keeps pointing to the peak in daily deaths to occur in NYS as we speak, sometime between April 7th and 9th, perhaps on the 10th at the very latest, with NJ only a few days behind as well as the entire USA.

3. One concerning fact in NYS is a high percentage of positives. Little above 40% of all tested are positive, which is rather high, indicating a high level of spread of the infection. Its trend too is concerning showing rather slow decline over the last couple of weeks, hovering above 40%.

#Covid19