April 27 - Deaths Nose-Dive in NYS?

1. Both the USA and the World seem to be stabilizing at improved 'heights', through wild ups and downs but still strongly in the right direction.

2. Days-to-Double both for deaths and positives for both the USA and the World now seems to be at ~30 days! About six-fold improvement month-over-month!

3. The number of deaths seem to be finally taking a nose-dive in the state of New York. It can be seen from the chart that NYS was at this daily deaths level at about a month ago, around March 30th, when it was still climbing up to reach the scary peak of nearly 800 deaths a day around April 8th. Now all that is over and let's hope the nose-dive will only accelerate from here on.

4. The percentage of positives ticked down to just under 20% for the first time.

5. Today, Governor Cuomo gave an update on the results of the antibody tests in NYS, now performed on ~7,500 randomly selected state residents. They suggest that ~15% of the population of NYS and ~25% of the population of NYC are infected. This is inline with what we have been reporting in this blog for nearly two weeks now -- that the number of infected, as inferred from the number of deaths and from any reasonable range of the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate), implies ~x10 more infected than there are reported positives, suggesting that about 20-40% of NYS population is probably already infected by SARS-CoV-2. Either that, or the virus has gotten dramatically (i.e. ~x10) less lethal than it was about one or two months ago.

#COVID-19