April 22 - How Many Infected Are There in the State of NY?

1. Positive trend through daily ups and downs continues. Improvements over the past month are clear and strong.

• USA: Days-to-Double for deaths now at ~14, and for positives now at ~19 days;

• World: Days-to-Double for deaths now at ~19, for positives at ~22 days.

2. The actual number of infected in NYS is a big open question especially when thinking of the second phase:

• The percentage of positives is ticking lower, now at 27% compared to ~40% a week ago. More than anything this probably implies that ~60-70% of the population in NYS is not infected;

• However, the number of observed deaths in NYS implies a much higher number of infected than the reported number of positives would suggest. Indeed, if the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) for Covid-19 is at or below ~1%, then the observed deaths would imply ~x10 more infected than there are reported positives! Thus, the observed ~250,000 positives may in fact mean ~2.5 Million infected in NYS!

• In fact, the number of infected is probably even higher than that given the recent Lancent study that puts Covid-19 IFR lower than 1%, namely at ~0.66% (0.39-1.33).
  

#COVID-19