April 21 - Robust Improvements Despite Ups and Downs

1. Data are fluctuating a lot due to reporting date precision. The 'weekend effect' might still be at work today. Improvements over the long haul are clear and we have Days-to-Double:

• USA: DD for deaths now at ~11, and for positives now at ~21;

• World: DD for deaths now at ~17, for positives at ~23.

These still represent marked improvements over the past month.

2. The actual number of infected in NYS is a big question especially when thinking of the second phase:

• The percentage of positives is ticking lower, now at 27% compared to ~40% a week ago. More than anything this probably implies that ~60-70% of the population in NYS is not infected;

• However, the number of observed deaths in NYS implies a much higher number of infected than the reported number of positives would suggest. Indeed, if the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) for Covid-19 is at or below ~1%, then the observed deaths would imply ~x10 more infected than positives! Thus, the observed ~250,000 positives may well imply ~2.5 Million infected in NYS!

• In fact, the number of infected is probably even higher than that given the recent Lancent study that puts Covid-19 IFR lower than 1%, namely at ~0.66% (0.39-1.33).
  

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