April 20 - The First Wave is (Largely) Over. What Next?

1. Despite expected weekend fluctuations, strong improvement is confirmed in both the USA and the World. A quick reflection on Days-to-Double might be worthwhile:

USA --

• DD for deaths now at ~15, meaning ~x7 improvement since March 26;

• DD for positives now at ~19, meaning ~x6 improvement since March 26.

World --

• DD for deaths now at ~22, meaning ~x4 improvement since March 26;

• DD for positives now at ~23, meaning ~x5 improvement since March 26.

2. Thinking of the second phase in NYS:

• The percentage of positives is ticking lower, now below 30% for the second day. More than anything this implies that ~60-70% of the population in NYS is not infected;

• However, the number of observed deaths in NYS implies a much higher number of infected than the reported number of positives would suggest. Indeed, if the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) for Covid-19 is at or below ~1%, then the observed deaths would imply ~x10 more infected than positives! Thus, the observed ~250,000 positives may well imply ~2.5 Million infected in NYS!

• In fact, the number of infected is probably even higher than that given the recent Lancent study that puts Covid-19 IFR lower than 1%, namely at ~0.66% (0.39-1.33).
  

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