April 19 - Much Better but Much More Many Infected?

1. Things are looking much better across both the USA and the World!

Days-to-Double:

• for deaths in the USA now at ~18 and for the World now at ~26 days;

• for positives in the USA now at ~21 and for the World now at ~22 days.

Even if some of these marked improvements are due to accustomed daily fluctuations and/or the 'weekend effect' as observed before, it still is a strong showing across the board.

2. Strong improvements in the NYS continue to be fully supported by the strong hospital data. The peak in daily deaths was passed in NYS a few days ago (April 7-10) and daily deaths are starting to nose-dive!

3. In terms of thinking about the second phase in NYS:

• The percentage of positives in NYS is ticking lower, now below 30% for the first time! More than anything this implies that ~60-70% of the population in NYS is not infected;

• However, the observed deaths in NYS imply a much higher number of infected than the number of positives would suggest. Indeed, if the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) for Covid-19 is at or below ~1%, then the observed deaths would imply ~10 times more infected than positives! Thus, the observed ~250,000 positives may well imply ~2.5 Million infected in NYS!

• In fact, the number of infected is probably even higher than that given the recent Lancent study that puts Covid-19 IFR lower, at ~0.66% (0.39-1.33).
  

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