April 14 - A Pause

1. While Days-to-Double (DD) for positives in both the USA and the World remain largely at the same levels as yesterday (~15 and ~18 days, respectively), a down-tick is seen in DD for deaths in both the USA and the World. Looks like a daily fluctuation, so let's see what tomorrow brings.

2. NYS saw a somewhat high number of deaths reported for Monday than might be expected if the peak in daily deaths is behind us. Despite this, the hospital data is so strong that it is hard to doubt that the peak has indeed been passed. There have been reports (e.g. in NY Times) of some number of deaths being under-reported in NYC ( deaths outside of hospitals ) and that they have been included on Tuesday. It is not clear exactly when they will be included or if they had already been included but the next couple of days will show. Either way, it is unlikely that such an under-reporting would alter the day-to-day variation patterns that we are following here (and therefore the location of the peak), although unfortunately it will definitely increase the total number of deaths.

3. Marked improvements continue in all of daily hospitalizations data from NYS. Percentage of positives in NYS, though still at alarmingly high levels, now is dipping strongly under 40% and is continuing acceleration in the downward trend.

#COVID19